Monday, May 01, 2006

On another news front... and this is me thinking aloud, so to speak. (The title is RANDOM thoughts... randomness does not necessarily equal coherentness, but randomness can occassionally lead to brilliance, so I'm told) The entire mess with Iran.

Now, my question is... why would President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be so bellicose against the West, especially after the rather quiet tenure of his predecessor? A friend of mine earlier today had an idea... its a front.

Iran is desperately in need of some radical reform... it has an exploding population and economic strains... but these reforms are going to be painful. Maybe Ahmadinejad is trying to simply use the USs as a boogeyman to rally the hardliners around himself SO he can push forward some reform agendas. He was elected on a largely reform platform. Now, I'm not disagreeing with those who point out that a nuclear armed Iran is a threat (at the very least, because their weapons are very close to certain people who'd love to steal them and use them against the US), but part of me seriously wonders if his goal is to get a UN Security Council sanction so he can become the hardline hero.

*shrug*

Random thought, I suppose. If the above is true, and Iran's position is mostly one of saber rattling, then some backdoor options are suddenly open... especially if we use the Russians as a front. An under the table agreement... Iran gets a guarantee that it'll eventually get nuclear power, in return to slowing down now...Everyone saves face... Ahmadinejad gets to sound bellicose and angry against the West to shore up support at home, the US says they're containing Iran in the short term. Russia gets to still work on their investment in the Iranian nuclear reactors, plus likely gets a cut from both sides on the deal.

Random thoughts.

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